In the early stages of the cycle

The market retreated 9% in May. These losses, although painful, largely reflect excessive concerns surrounding the debt crisis in Europe, but also the uncertainty created by the resignation of Indonesia’s Finance Minister.  So with these concerns easing, greater opportunities shall come. Most crucially of all, the economy is doing well and is even expanding at its fastest pace since the 2008 crisis – although still below the very fast growth pace at its peak in 1995 – supported by benign inflation and record low interest rates. Manufacturing is strong and the Manufacturing Index rose an impressive 5% in 1Q10 YoY – its largest increase since 1Q08. Exports are at a decade high. Fiscally, things are in good shape and the Debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen to only 28%. Bank lending has been prudent with loans growth of 21% p.a. over the last 5 years. All in all, we believe the economy is in an early stage of a 7-year cycle, meaning strong earnings growth to come. On the political front, there are inevitably some frictions from time to time, but huge gains in achieving political stability have been made. Using a bottom-up approach, we arrive at a new index target of 3,193, implying 15.5x 2010 PER. As we will argue later, there is upside to this target, stemming from the anticipated economic expansion which will surely lead to earnings upgrades.

May 2010, source: Danareksa

Data Manufaktur dan Tenaga Kerja Memburuk, Wall Street Kian Terpuruk

(Vibiznews – Index) – Wall Street pada perdagangan hari ini (03/10) kembali berakhir melemah, dipicu oleh sentimen negatif dari sejumlah indikator ekonomi termasuk factory orders dan data tenaga kerja. Dow Jones melemah 21.61 poin, atau 0.23% ke level 9,487.67; S&P 500 merosot 4.64 poin atau 0.45% ke level 1,025.21; dan Nasdaq turun 9.37 poin atau 0.46%, ke level 2,048.11. Pekan ini, artinya Dow Jones merosot 1.8%, S&P 500 melemah 1.8%, dan Nasdaq anjlok 2%.

Sentimen negatif pertama kali datang dari data manufaktur yakni factory orders yang di luar dugaan melemah 0.8% pada bulan Agustus, setelah kemarin ISM manufaktur juga merosot. Sementara itu, sentimen negatif utama datang dari laporan bahwa perekonomian pada bulan September telah kehilangan 263,000 tenaga kerja, dan tingkat pengangguran melejit menjadi 9.8%. GE menjadi top loser pada Dow Jones, anjlok 3.82% ke level $15.36 setelah dilaporkan sedang bernegosiasi dengan Comcast yang akan membeli unit NBC Universal milik GE. Comcast juga melemah 2.7% ke level $15.24. Saham industrial lainnya juga melemah tajam, seperti Boeing turun 1.36% ke level $51.40 dan Caterpillar merosot 1.25% ke level $48.83. Sementara itu, saham CIT Group melejit hingga 10.4% ke level $1.17 menyusul berita bahwa merka akan meluncurkan rencana pertukaran utang demi menghindar dari kebangkrutan.

Menurut analisa dari Divisi Vibiz Research di Vibiz Consulting, pergerakan bursa AS dalam waktu dekat masih berpotensi untuk melemah, seiring dengan indikator ekonomi yang belum stabil , sehingga mengakibatkan investor untuk ragu terhadap pemulihan perekonomian. Rinella Putri/RP/vbn